Are blind box the new frontier of beauty? Beauty brands are rediscovering the power of surprise

By now we know it: there’s a magic formula capable of transforming entire marketing campaigns or influencing new product launches across various industries, and that formula is blind box. A recent and perfect example to better understand this concept is the Sapo Concho blind box, a gadget launched by Bad Bunny as a limited edition item to accompany his album DeBí TiRAR MáS FOToS. The question arises naturally: why would the label of a world-famous singer change its merch strategy? As we already saw with the Labubu phenomenon and the unstoppable rise of Pop Mart, blind box are officially the trend of the moment, and it seems they’ll stay around for quite a while. So the real question is: betting on this product, especially in certain fields like beauty, is it a winning move or not? But first, let’s understand why they’re so appealing.

Why do we want to buy blind box?

The term originates from Japan with the Lucky Bag, sold on New Year’s with surprise contents. Later it evolved into Gashapon, capsule toy vending machines. Then came 2016, when Pop Mart launched the Molly series, marking the beginning of the boom in China. According to a recent study conducted by the Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, School of Statistics and Information, blind box give young people a sense of belonging and identity, while also allowing temporary escape from reality.

The Dependency Model (Hook Model) explained

As highlighted by the study, the appeal of blind box can be explained through consumer behavior dependency models. The Hook Model is based on three phases: actions, variable rewards, and investment.

1. Actions. The products inside mystery boxes are often small objects or figurines. Compared to action figures costing thousands of yuan, the price of a blind box is much more affordable, lowering the entry barrier for purchase. At the same time, Gen Z’s strong spending power and desire to meet emotional needs increase their willingness to buy.
2. Variable Rewards. Thanks to social media, those who buy these products can gain different kinds of rewards, especially in terms of likes and reposts when posting personal videos. The design of blind box also includes common models and limited editions, creating a real hunt for the "secret." As the study notes: "Taking Bubble Mart as an example, the probability of getting a rare (hidden) model is only 1 in 144, and the sense of achievement in finding it is remarkable".
3. Investment. When consumers buy blind box and end up with unpopular or duplicate models, it becomes a sunk cost. They believe the next one will be better or different, so they keep investing, strengthening their bond with the product.

Can this model work in the makeup world?

The beauty industry is also embracing this trend in different ways. Take Clarins, for example: the French brand decided to incorporate a small mascot into its latest launch. These are the Plushies, collectible plush lipsticks, obviously sold in blind box. In this case, it’s a gadget, but many brands are pushing towards creating real mystery box with actual makeup products. The mechanism is the same one that keeps us glued to influencer unboxing videos, but with one big difference: the influencer usually knows what’s inside the package, while with a mystery box, the surprise effect is guaranteed. The latest collaboration between Morphe Cosmetics X Superdrug proves this: from powders to blushes to eyeshadows, creators unbox the pink-gold pouches without knowing if the product will suit their skin. Even the giant Sephora is experimenting with this format, for example, with its limited edition mystery box collection of blushes.

Why do we want to buy blind box?

While there are many advantages to exploring this new marketing trend, there are also risks. Brands could lose control over the customer experience. Skincare and makeup are highly personal, factors such as skin type, tone, allergies, and taste must be considered. If buyers receive unusable products, frustration builds and trust in the brand decreases. From an ethical standpoint, the beauty industry is already under scrutiny for excessive packaging, unused products, and waste. The blind box phenomenon could worsen this problem, driving impulsive and unsustainable consumption.